The 2020 National Football League Draft – A Classic TBT

This Thursday is the annual NFL Draft. It will no doubt be one of the strangest ones in recent memory. In the midst of our pandemic mania, the league will use all the available technology they can muster to conduct the draft online, and although it will seem new and different, the process feels more like a throw-back to earlier times. It should be interesting.

Let’s take a quick look back at the history of the draft. First held in 1936, the professional football draft was the brain-child of Philadelphia Eagles owner Bert Bell, who was trying to find a way to get a few decent players. In the early years of pro football, the best players were signed by whichever team made them the best offer. Whether motivated by money, location, or the chance to win, players were free to pick the team they preferred. Teams in smaller markets suffered and struggled to compete with other teams who often had distinct advantages in building their rosters.

In the beginning, the draft pool was determined by reputation and the recommendations of college coaches, but eventually teams began to invest in their own scouts to seek out the best players from around the country. A more open competition began again in 1960 with the start of the AFL. The leagues instituted a common draft in 1967 prior to the merger of 1970. The late seventies and early eighties saw the beginnings of a more systematic approach to identifying the best talent available and the development of the combine which led to the insane amount of advance preparation we see by teams today.

(For a more detailed look at the history of the draft and some interesting trivia, check out these two articles:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1077925-history-of-the-nfl-draft-how-has-the-process-evolved-over-time

https://landryfootball.com/nfl-draft-history-free/)

This year of course, there was no combine. Teams have had limited opportunities to meet potential draftees face to face, and personal workouts and physicals have also fallen by the wayside. Almost like the old days! Teams are depending heavily on game films and scouting reports which may lead to some surprises in the coming season.

The other big fear is that somehow the technology will betray them. Without the big war rooms, each team’s executives and coaching personnel may be scattered and out of touch. Here’s hoping the phone lines and computer connections hold up to the demands of this particular draft. Nobody wants to lose out on their preferred pick because of some unforeseen glitch. (If something sinister does happen, of course it will somehow be blamed on the Patriots, right?) Meanwhile the Cowboys (who suck), are taking advantage of their family connections to enable them to assemble more of their war room than any other team.

Anyway, to the draft itself. Here are my less than brilliant predictions.

·         Teams will reach, especially for quarterbacks, and at least three will probably go in the first six picks.

·         At least one of those top three will have a less than spectacular career, probably Burrow or whoever else is unfortunate enough to be selected by the Bengals in the first spot. (The greatest blog I’ve yet to write is titled “The Luck of Andrew” which examines the unlucky quarterbacks who suffer from being picked first by the weakest team in the entire league. Andrew Luck was indeed lucky to go to a pretty good team who blatantly tanked the season to secure the first pick. My next greatest unwritten blog is “The Romo Effect” which illustrates how quarterbacks, even average ones, benefit greatly from being picked in the mid to late rounds by fairly good teams.)

·         A bunch of teams will draft offensive lineman. Yawn.

·         Running backs will get zero respect and maybe one might get picked near the end of the first round.

·         Wide receivers and edge rushers will get lots of respect and there are some good ones who will go in the first round. Cornerbacks, too.

·         My team, the Texans will not pick in the first round. Do we ever? Maybe someday when we have a real General Manager again, we’ll manage to hang onto at least an occasional first round pick. (Then again has any team ever traded away more first round franchise-type players? I’m thinking Mario Williams, Jadeveon Clowney, and DeAndre Hopkins were some awful good picks to have ended up playing elsewhere so soon after they were drafted. Maybe we’re better off without any first round picks!)

Anyway, whatever happens, I guess the teams can always blame their mistakes on the computer, or the lack of a combine or whatever. But honestly, the good organizations will have done enough scouting to come out okay, and those teams with poor owners and/or management will find a way to screw up their picks like always. Either way, it should make for an entertaining draft.